AFP/Getty Images

By Al Yoon

Home-price forecasts for 2013 are on the rise.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects U.S. home prices to rise 3.4% in its base-case estimate and up to 9.7% in its most bullish scenario of economic growth. Standard & Poor’s, which rates private-issue mortgage bonds, on Friday said it expects a 5% rise in 2013.

The J.P. Morgan analysts boosted their base-case estimate from 1.5% after a convincing rise in the “net demand” for housing this year has surpassed 2 million homes for the first time since 2006, said John Sim, a strategist at the investment bank. Net demand is the pace of existing home sales minus the inventory of homes available for sale.

“Net demand has picked up a lot in 2012,” said Mr. Sim. “Once you get north of the 2 million territory, you are in the positive growth area unless you get a lot of distressed inventory, which this year hit a low point” since at least 2008, he added. J.P. Morgan predicts that net demand to rise from 2.7 million next year from 2.3 million this year.

An expected increase in home prices in 2012 triggered a run into some of the riskiest real estate assets, such as subprime mortgage-backed securities from the real estate boom, and analysts including Mr. Sim expect that trend to continue. Rising home prices and the quest for yield has also given a tailwind to new mortgage bond issuance that has been mired in the fallout of the housing crisis and regulatory uncertainty for the past four years.

U.S. home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3% in October, the biggest increase since June 2006, according to CoreLogic. Investors zoning in on the increases bought subprime mortgage bonds, which have posted returns of more than 40% since December.

Home price increases could exceed J.P. Morgan’s base forecast if investors seeking yield push deeper into real estate, according to Mr. Sim’s home price report.

That may already be happening, considering recent comments by Luke Scolastico, a vice president at Credit Suisse, one of two issuers of mortgage bonds without government backing since the financial crisis. Credit Suisse is increasing its purchases of jumbo loans to meet demand for securities it sees from investors, he said on an American Securitization Forum panel this week.

“We’re buying loans, every day…and (on the month,) more than the month before,” Mr. Scolastico said. Part of the reason is because of home price appreciation, but also because of the “technical demand” for relatively higher yielding assets as Federal Reserve policies depress interest rates, he said.

New mortgage bond sales from other issuers, including investment banks, could boost issuance of private label bonds this year as high as $30 billion, Mr. Sim said. That’s up from almost $5 billion this year but paltry compared with annual volume above $1 trillion generated as the housing bubble neared its breaking point in 2006.

Mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae still fund more than 90% of new home loans. Bank portfolios and other private lending make up the rest.

Considering risks, J.P. Morgan analysts conceded that the economy is “gloomy” and tight lending standards can stop a bullish homebuyer from proceeding with a purchase. On the supply side, the “shadow inventory” of more than four million homes near or stuck in foreclosure still looms, though that is dropping, the analysts said.

What’s more, just the uncertainty over whether politicians will be able to steer clear of the “fiscal cliff,” the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts next month, may hurt investor confidence, the J.P. Morgan analysts said.

If taxes rise, reduced income for the potential homebuyers will damp housing demand, they added.

But the expectations for higher home prices are still widespread. Nearly three-quarters of investors polled by J.P. Morgan expect home prices to rise 5% in 2013.

Read article

The pace of foreclosure activity continued to decline at the end of 2012, pushing the nation’s foreclosure inventory down 19.5% from a year earlier, according to a new report from CoreLogic.

In December, 1.2 million homes landed in the national foreclosure inventory, down from 1.5 million homes a year earlier, CoreLogic said.

Just from November, the nation’s foreclosure inventory slipped 4.2%.

Foreclosure inventory, as measured by CoreLogic, is the share of all mortgaged homes in any stage of the foreclosure process.

The pace of foreclosures also slowed year-over-year, dropping 21% to 56,000 completed foreclosures in December, compared to 71,000 a year earlier and down 3% from 58,000 in November. Overall, the nation recorded 767,000 completed foreclosures in 2012.

Before the housing crisis, a healthy real estate economy averaged 21,000 foreclosures per month, which is still substantially lower than the most recent December figures. But CoreLogic found a silver lining in the numbers.

“The most encouraging foreclosure trend reported here is that the inventory of foreclosed properties is almost 20% smaller than a year ago,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This big improvement indicates we are working toward resolving the backlog of the most distressed assets in the shadow inventory.”

“The rate of foreclosures continues to trend down, albeit at a slower rate as we exit 2012,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/02/01/corelogic-national-foreclosure-inventory-falls-195

When the housing market imploded in 2007 and took the economy with it, experts said the real estate market would never look the same again. Now, nearly six years after the crash, the dust has finally cleared and we have a true picture of the new housing landscape.

While investors may still be leery of hopping back into the market, housing starts, prices and confidence are on an upward trend and the tide may be turning this year to favor homesellers.

Homebuyers can expect a more competitive market in 2013, and should start the mortgage lending process at least three months before they plan to start seriously looking because experts expect the process to take several months under new lending standards. House hunters should be ready to deal right away as inventory is expected to remain at low levels throughout the year.

Homesellers are shifting into the driver’s seat with experts expecting bidding wars to break out in certain markets due to the low inventory. While homes will sell quicker this year, they still have to be priced right.

“The mobility rate has been at a very low rate, meaning that people really did not move during the recessionary years, so there is pent up demand — but sellers need to price correctly,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Here’s a rundown of what experts expect from the market: